What Happens If Iran Pulls Out of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

FIFA tries its best to separate geopolitics from football, but the war between Iran, the United States and Israel will certainly affect the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which kicks off in June.

This competition is set to be the largest in the history of World Cups, with 48 teams and 104 matches across 16 cities in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

The ongoing conflict, which has resulted in the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, has raised serious doubts about the involvement of the Iranians, who have already qualified as one of Asia’s finest teams. 

Iran's soccer federation has already gone public about its doubts about competing; they have raised safety concerns and potential U.S. travel restrictions because of the war involving their nation, Israel and the USA.

If Iran withdraws from the World Cup, we expect a major change that would have ripple effects on us all, including logistical, competitive, and economic ones. 

Thankfully, FIFA already has regulations that provide a framework for handling such situations, and the decision rests solely with the governing body, but they would not appreciate such a forced removal so late in the competition year. 

In this article, we'll explore the procedures that FIFA would follow, potential replacement teams, and the broader impacts on the structure of the tournament.

Additionally, we'll discuss the effects on ticket sales, drawing on current trends and historical parallels in which geopolitical issues made an impact on demand. 

As fans watch the war daily, filled with uncertainty, platforms like LocoTickets.com remain crucial for monitoring resale availability and comparing deals on existing matches.

Current geopolitics and Iran’s qualification

Iran has always been one of the strongest footballing nations in Asia, and they finished in one of their continent’s automatic spots for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. 

As of March 2026, FIFA ranks them 20th globally, indicating they are among the nations that can offer good football and entertainment at the competition. 

Iran has qualified for six of the last eight FIFA World Cups and has always held its own in the competition, delivering promising and unpredictable performances each time. 

Their group draw placed them in a group from which they could qualify, with their opening game against New Zealand, followed by Belgium and Egypt, a run that positions them as one of the favourites to advance under the expanded format, where many third-place teams will progress.

However, with the USA asking for Iran’s unconditional surrender and the regime remaining defiant, there is a growing chance that the Iranians would be forced to boycott the World Cup. 

The USA already denied Iranian officials visas to participate in the draw, and now it seems their team may not be allowed to travel for the competition.

What is FIFA’s procedure when a team withdraws?

FIFA has made provisions for a scenario like this, so they have a clear protocol for withdrawals like this, if indeed it does happen. Some key points include:

Decision-making authority: FIFA reserves all the rights to make a decision that is best for the competition when a team withdraws, and this includes the right to replace them with another country, which we expect to be the case here.

Penalties: Teams that withdraw from the competition must pay penalties, which is important to deter others from taking similar action in the future. Withdrawal more than 30 days before the first match would result in Iran paying a minimum fine of $321,000. If they wait and withdraw very close to kickoff, the fine rises to at least $642,000. The Iranian federation must reimburse preparation funds (at least $10.5 million for group-stage exit) and could face expulsion from future tournaments, which may not be the case for Iran if the USA forces them to miss the competition.

Replacement flexibility: Although it is not expressly stated, historically, teams from the same region have been called upon as replacements. This is important to maintain balance. For example, Denmark replaced Yugoslavia in the 1992 Euros due to sanctions.

Tournament adjustments: If a withdrawal occurs before the draw, groups might be redrawn. But if it happens after the draw, as is the current situation, the replacement would simply inherit Iran's slot. Matches against the withdrawn team could be forfeited 3-0, but if FIFA opts for a replacement, this is avoided.

Potential replacement teams

In picking a replacement for the Iranians, it is important to maintain the integrity of the tournament, which makes it very likely that a replacement would be picked from the Asian Football Confederation. Although FIFA can pick a replacement from another region, choosing from Asia means they will respect the quota system they created.

Eligible replacements from Asia

Teams were ranked via a hierarchy during the AFC qualifiers, and Iran topped their group. This means that the next in line would come from among the playoff losers.

Iraq: Iraq is the frontrunner, having finished ninth in the AFC qualifiers after winning a two-leg playoff against the UAE. 

This earned them a place in the intercontinental playoff, where they would face either Bolivia or Suriname. Many sources in the game have touted Iraq as the most likely candidate. 

This would be great news for a country that has been ravaged by war, but they have World Cup experience from participating in the 1986 edition.

United Arab Emirates: The UAE finished tenth in the AFC rankings after being eliminated by Iraq. They will be a viable alternative to Iraq, and they could make an impression as they have been investing in the game for some time and now have modern infrastructure and a growing soccer scene.

Other AFC contenders: If Iraq does not take up the spot, as they have also been embroiled in this conflict, Oman and Bahrain are two other AFC options. However, if FIFA prioritises rankings to pick the replacement, none of them will make the cut.

The impact on ticket sales

In history, geopolitics has played some role in ticket sales for major tournaments, and this one would not be exempt. Iran’s potential exit from this competition will make existing challenges even more pronounced.

Historical examples:

Russia's 2022 ban: When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it led to a reshuffling of the playoff for that year’s World Cup. This decision alone also resulted in a dip in ticket sales and made more tickets available on the resale market, with StubHub reporting up to 20% below face value.

1994 U.S. World Cup: In the build-up to the 1994 World Cup in the USA, there were political tensions, including the drug war that affected Colombia, and there was a boycott as a result of that, which affected up 5% of the attendance at some matches.

General boycotts: In 2022, human rights protests marred the Qatar World Cup, and there were more than 10,000 ticket cancellations, flooding the resale market with more tickets, which automatically forced tickets to sell at lower prices.